A Long-Term Perspective in a Time of Global Tension
War, rising geopolitical tensions, and shifting global alliances naturally raise questions:
- How will markets respond?
- Should investors be making changes now?
Rather than reacting to headlines, it’s worth stepping back and looking at the broader patterns shaping today’s environment. This is the foundation of our financial planning approach, to see the bigger picture before making decisions.
The 35–36 Year Cycle of “Great Resets”
History shows a recurring pattern: roughly every 35–36 years, the global system undergoes a meaningful realignment. These periods reshape:
- Social cohesion
- Political power structures
- Economic systems
- Scientific understanding
- Media and information flow
We are currently in one of those periods.
A Look at Prior Reset Periods
1809–1811: Independence movements reshaped colonial power structures.
1846–1848: Territorial expansion and ideological shifts changed global direction.
1882–1884: Financial panic and scientific breakthroughs redefined society.
1917: Empires collapsed, war escalated, and foundational systems reset.
1952–1953: Nuclear power, DNA discovery, and television reshaped modern life.
1987–1989: Market shocks and the rise of the internet created global integration.
2025–2026: The Current Reset
- Geopolitics: Renewed global power struggles
- Markets: AI-driven expansion and speculative bubbles
- Media: Blurred lines between reality and AI-generated content
- Society: Increasing inequality and division
- Technology: Rapid emergence of artificial intelligence
- Military: Rising tensions among major global powers
This environment is not unprecedented. It is cyclical.
How We Invest in Times Like These
Periods of instability often push investors toward:
- Commodities (oil, gold, hard assets)
- Defense-related sectors
- Speculative opportunities tied to global disruption
These can move quickly but unpredictably.
Our focus remains on disciplined portfolio management rather than chasing short-term volatility.
Our Approach
We are not chasing volatility. Instead, we remain focused on:
- Long-term consistency
- Risk management
- Tax efficiency
- Avoiding reactive decisions
Frequent trading in volatile markets can create unnecessary tax consequences, which is why we emphasize tax-efficient investing strategies whenever possible.
At this time, our portfolios show limited need for major adjustments. That doesn’t mean inactivity, it means disciplined oversight.
Recession Risk Is Rising
The probability of a global recession has increased meaningfully, roughly doubling from pre-conflict expectations.
If this unfolds:
- Some sectors will face pressure
- Others may benefit
- Energy constraints may ripple across economies
Some sectors will struggle while others may benefit. This is where thoughtful retirement and long-term planning becomes especially important. Longer-term themes like renewable energy and clean technology may grow, but likely later in the decade.
The Moral Dimension of Investing
In today’s environment, capital is increasingly flowing toward:
- Security technologies
- Defense contractors
- Military infrastructure
This raises an important question: “Should investment decisions be based purely on opportunity, or also on principle?”
Reasonable investors disagree.
- Some focus strictly on returns
- Others consider the broader impact of where capital is deployed
Reasonable investors differ. Our role is to help clients align investment decisions with both financial goals and personal values.
A Thought Worth Considering
In uncertain times, it’s easy to become reactive.
A better question may be: “What kind of investor do you want to be when conditions are most challenging?”
Closing Perspective
- Stay disciplined
- Manage risk carefully
- Focus on long-term outcomes
- Avoid emotional decisions
We will continue to monitor conditions and make adjustments only when they are necessary—not reactive.
Let’s Talk About Your Situation
If you would like to review your portfolio or discuss your strategy, we invite you to connect with us.
📞 Call: 404-245-7900
🌐 Visit: Schedule a conversation
You are always welcome to share this article with friends and family who may benefit from a disciplined, long-term approach to investing.
About Frederick Ravid
President, Chartered Financial Services, Inc.
Fee-Only Registered Investment Advisor
Offices in New York, Colorado, and Georgia